Will a 4-minute mile happen in women’s running? How Faith Kipyegon can make the dream a reality

BOULDER, Colo. — In the world of track and field, few milestones loom as large as the four-minute mile. When Roger Bannister first broke this barrier in 1954, he sparked a revolution in human athletic achievement. That same year, Diane Leather became the first woman to run under five minutes. Fast forward to 2023, and Faith Kipyegon set the female world record with a blistering 4:07.64. The gap between men’s and women’s records has narrowed considerably over seven decades, but the four-minute threshold remains elusive for female athletes.

What if the solution isn’t just about training harder or waiting for genetic outliers, but about running smarter? A fascinating new study published in the Royal Society Open Science journal suggests that with strategic aerodynamic drafting—essentially using other runners as human windshields—an elite female athlete like Kipyegon could potentially break the four-minute mile barrier right now.

The Science of Speed: How Drafting Changes the Game

The research, conducted by a team of scientists from France and the United States, calculated that Kipyegon could potentially run a mile in about 3:59.37 with the right drafting strategy. This represents a reduction of over eight seconds from her current world record, requiring her to run just 3.19% faster than her record-setting pace.

Aerodynamic drag might seem negligible to casual joggers, but at elite speeds, air resistance becomes a significant barrier. For smaller athletes like Kipyegon (1.57m, 42kg), air resistance actually represents a higher percentage of body weight compared to larger runners—about 2.16% of her body weight at four-minute mile pace, versus 1.83% for someone with Bannister’s dimensions (1.88m, 70kg).

“Drafting allows the designated athlete to run at a given speed with a slower rate of metabolic energy consumption; or, more relevant here, drafting allows the designated athlete to run faster at the same rate of metabolic energy consumption, the authors explain in their paper, published in Royal Society Open Science. By strategically positioning “pacers” around the primary runner, the air resistance can be dramatically reduced, allowing the athlete to maintain higher speeds without requiring additional energy.

When Bannister broke the four-minute mile, he didn’t do it alone. He drafted closely behind two different pacers for more than 80% of the race.

“It was the running equivalent to summiting Mount Everest for the first time,” said University of Colorado Boulder Integrative Physiology Professor Rodger Kram, describing Bannister’s achievement. “Prior to Bannister, it was considered impossible—beyond the limits of human physiology.”

In contrast, during her world record run, Kipyegon only had pacers for about the first 56% of the race, and even then, she wasn’t consistently positioned for optimal drafting.

Many people think of drafting primarily in cycling or car racing, but it’s surprisingly effective in running too. The study’s calculations show that with the right formation of pacers, the four-minute barrier is within reach for top female athletes right now.

“We found that if everything went right, under a couple of different drafting scenarios, she could break the 4-minute barrier,” said co-author Shalaya Kipp, an Olympic middle-distance runner now working as a postdoctoral researcher at the Mayo Clinic.

The Perfect Formation: Creating an Aerodynamic Advantage

Air resistance increases exponentially with speed, meaning that as runners approach elite pace, every small reduction in drag can yield significant performance gains. The drag force depends on the runner’s body size, air density, and importantly, the square of velocity.

Using modeling based on both wind tunnel experiments and computer simulations, the researchers estimated that with optimal drafting, Kipyegon could reduce her air resistance by as much as 75.6%. This level of reduction would theoretically allow her to maintain the same energy output while running fast enough to break the four-minute barrier.

“The runner in front is literally pushing the air molecules out of the way,” explained Kram.

The most effective approach identified by the researchers involves what they call “formation 2″—one pacer running 1.2 meters in front of the designated runner combined with a second pacer 1.2 meters directly behind. To maintain this level of drafting for the full mile, the researchers suggest using two teams of pacers who switch out at the 800-meter mark.

From Theory to Practice: The Path to Sub-Four Minutes

The calculations weren’t merely theoretical. The team started with Kipyegon’s actual performance data from her world record run in Monaco, estimating her energy output during each 400-meter lap. They then calculated how much faster she could run at the same intensity if her air resistance was reduced.

“Ideally,” Kram said, “one female pacer would be perfectly spaced in front, another in back, for the first half mile; then another fresh-legged pair would step in to take their place at the half-mile point.”

The results showed that with 75.6% drafting effectiveness throughout the full mile, Kipyegon’s theoretical finishing time would be 3:59.37—breaking the four-minute barrier by a narrow but decisive margin. Coincidentally, this projected time is almost identical to Bannister’s historic 3:59.4.

“It’s extremely exciting that we are now talking about, and studying, the limits of female human performance, too,” noted Kipp.

Even with more conservative estimates of drafting effectiveness (39.5%), the calculations suggest Kipyegon could run 4:03.61—still a remarkable improvement over her current record.

Rather than waiting decades for the slow march of record progression, smart aerodynamics could potentially allow elite women to achieve performances previously thought to be beyond their current physical capacity.

Making It Happen: The Breaking4 Project for Women

The practical implementation of such drafting strategies would require careful planning and coordinated execution. One approach would be a time trial with two elite male pacers (established four-minute milers) serving as designated pacers throughout the full distance—though this wouldn’t qualify for a female-only world record under World Athletics regulations.

A more feasible approach for record purposes would involve elite female middle-distance runners serving as pacers in formation 2 for the first two laps, with a second pair taking over for the third and fourth laps. This approach would echo the strategy used in Eliud Kipchoge’s sub-two-hour marathon attempt.

In 2016, Kram’s lab calculated what was required for a man to break the two-hour marathon barrier. Informed in part by their research, Nike hosted the Breaking2 Project in May 2017 to create ideal conditions for Kenyan marathoner Eliud Kipchoge. While Kipchoge narrowly missed his goal that day, he later achieved it in a similarly staged race in Vienna in 2019.

“Anyone from top elite to lower-level runners can benefit from adopting the optimal drafting formation for as much of their race as they can,” said Edson Soares da Silva, first author on the paper.

For any such attempt, precision would be paramount. The athletes would need extensive practice to coordinate their movements and maintain optimal spacing. Even small deviations from the ideal 1.2-meter distance between runners could significantly reduce drafting effectiveness. Pacing lights along the track could help maintain the required tempo.

Environmental factors would also play an important role in any record attempt. Kipyegon’s world record was set in Monaco with favorable conditions—high temperature (29°C) and humidity (57%) resulting in lower air density. While even hotter or more humid conditions might further reduce air resistance, the cooling challenges could potentially outweigh the aerodynamic benefits. Similarly, running at altitude would reduce air resistance but would also reduce oxygen delivery, likely creating a net disadvantage.

Beyond the Mile: Implications for Women’s Running

For female middle-distance runners, the ideas from this research apply beyond the four-minute threshold. The principles of aerodynamic drafting apply across distances, suggesting that strategic formation running could potentially improve performances from 800 meters to 10,000 meters and beyond.

For instance, da Silva calculated that a 125-pound, 5-foot-7 female runner who typically runs about a 3:35-minute marathon could improve her time by as much as five minutes through optimal drafting.

Perhaps the most significant practical challenge would be the coordination required among athletes. Maintaining precise spacing and alignment at elite racing speeds would demand extensive practice and coordination.

Despite these challenges, the research makes a good case that the four-minute mile barrier for women might be broken sooner than conventional wisdom suggests. Rather than waiting for decades of incremental improvements in training methods or the emergence of genetic outliers, strategic aerodynamics could potentially enable this historic achievement in the near future.

The researchers recently sent a copy of the paper to Kipyegon, her coaches and her sponsors at Nike, floating the idea of another staged race, similar to Breaking2.

“Hopefully,” the last line of the paper reads, “Ms. Kipyegon can test our prediction on the track.”

The four-minute mile was once considered not just difficult but potentially impossible for humans to achieve. When Bannister proved otherwise in 1954, he didn’t just break a time barrier—he shattered a psychological one. For women’s middle-distance running, the next breakthrough may combine athletic excellence with aerodynamic innovation, showing that sometimes the fastest way forward comes by strategically cutting through the air that pushes against every stride.